‘We need a plan B’: Admiral’s call for AUKUS rethink over unreliable Trump

“There would be nothing stopping them from saying, ‘Sorry the deal is off.’”

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Barrie said he could foresee a similar scenario to Britain’s decision to sell two dreadnought battleships to the Ottoman Empire, only to take possession of the vessels when World War I broke out.

In late January, Australia transferred the first $US500 million payment ($795 million) payment of the $US3 billion it has committed to help improve the US industrial base under the AUKUS.

There is no “clawback” provision stating that Australia will be refunded the money if the US reneges on its promise to provide the promised Virginia-class submarines from 2032.

The entire AUKUS program is estimated to cost up to $368 billion into the 2050s.

Legislation passed by the US Congress requires the US president to certify that the transfer of submarines to Australia “will not degrade the United States’ undersea capabilities” and is conditional on the US “making sufficient submarine production and maintenance investments” to meet its own needs.

Barrie said Australia needed to think about whether it needed nuclear-powered submarines capable of operating for long periods in the northern hemisphere, potentially in a conflict with China.

A more narrow focus on protecting the Australian continent would mean that conventionally powered diesel submarines could suffice, he said.

Otherwise, the government should consider a proposal by retired rear admiral Peter Briggs for Australia to seek to acquire Suffren-class nuclear-powered submarines from French builder Naval Group, he said.

Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said he was “still a strong supporter of AUKUS” but added: “It would be unwise for us to go ahead without a plan B and assume everything will go smoothly. The prudent approach is to have a back-up plan that doesn’t jettison AUKUS but gives us a way to minimise risk.”

Davis doubts Trump will say, “Let’s ditch AUKUS.”

“My concern is that US production capacity is not up to the task of providing us three to five Virginia-class submarines on schedule,” he said.

Increased use of long-range air power – including by acquiring B1B bombers from the US – could plug a submarine capability gap, Davis said.

The US is producing 1.2 Virginia-class submarines a year, well short of the 2.33 boats a year it has said will be required under the AUKUS pact.

Peter Dean, the head of defence policy at the United States Studies Centre, rejected calls for an AUKUS plan B, saying: “The Trump administration is committed to plan A. In fact, AUKUS at the moment is in better shape than it was under the Biden administration.”

While Trump was a “mercurial” president, Dean said, he had made improving the US shipbuilding industry a top defence priority and would see AUKUS as in the US national interest.

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