Nintendo predicts Switch 2 will outsell its predecessor at launch, despite demand exceeding expectations

Nintendo has forecast 15m sales of its Switch 2 console over the remainder of this financial year.

The console will launch next month and, by March 2026, Nintendo has predicted 15m console sales and 45m sales of software, according to its latest financial report.

The original Switch console sold 14.87m units in its first year on sale (Q4 FY17 – Q3 FY18), meaning Nintendo is predicting its new console will sell quicker.

Analysts had predicted Switch 2 sales of over 20m, but Nintendo recently admitted demand “far exceeds expectations” and warned of stock shortages. Trump’s tariffs in the US will also impact sales.

As for the original Switch console, hardware sales are down 31.2 percent year-on-year, while software sales are down 22.2 percent year-on-year. This is expected as the console nears the end of its life cycle and its follow-up has been announced.

Total lifetime sales for the Switch 1 are now at 152.12m units, just behind the DS at 154.02 units. The number of annual Switch 1 users has dipped slightly from 129 million to 128 million, but remains high.

Super Mario Party Jamboree has sold particularly well, reaching 7.48m units. This makes it the fastest-selling game in the series on Switch, although Super Mario Party hit lifetime sales of 20.1m. Still, Jamboree will see a second life with its Switch 2 upgrade.

Sales of other new games in the last fiscal year include The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom (3.7m), Paper Mario The Thousand Year Door (1.9m), Mario & Luigi Brothership (1.6m), Luigi’s Mansion 2 (1.6m), and Donkey Kong Country Returns (1m).

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, meanwhile, has sold a further 6.2m copies this financial year. Its lifetime sales are now 68.2m copies, ahead of Switch 2’s flagship launch game Mario Kart World.

Interestingly, digital sales increased by 3.3 percent year-on-year, with 62.9 percent of software sales being digital in the last quarter. Sales of Nintendo games have traditionally been physical, but this slowly appears to be changing – perhaps more with Switch 2 considering most third-party physical releases don’t have the game on the card.

Lastly, Nintendo’s report reconfirms a “late 2025” release for Pokémon Legends Z-A and “2025” release for Metroid Prime 4: Beyond across both Switch and Switch 2.